In 1918, of course, the media was at a great disadvantage, having to rely for communication on the printing press, the telegraph, and the telephone (which, at the time, incredibly, was shaped like a large candlestick, was tethered to the wall by a thick cable, and whose human interface was an actual human, named Mabel, who made your connection, when she was good and ready, by plugging the correct wires into the correct holes). It is no wonder that our modern media - armed as it is with instantaneous, global electronic communications, and numerous outlets for broadcasting content including print, radio, TV, and handheld communicators - is chomping at the bit to have a crack at the next Pandemic of the Century.
Which explains why, in just the first decade of this new century, we've already had three:
SARS - SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - is caused by a coronavirus. SARS was discovered in Asia in early 2003, and rapidly spread to 29 countries, leading to travel restrictions and quarantines. The disease killed over 700 people worldwide, and was said to have a mortality rate of around 9% - which is high for a virus. (None of the 200 or so patients who had SARS in the U.S. died, however, suggesting that the U.S. healthcare system, despite numerous claims to the contrary, can actually deliver top quality care under some rare circumstances.) In any case, SARS had made a big splash: Would SARS become the Pandemic of the new Century?
But SARS faded as rapidly as it arose, and by July of 2003 it had pretty much run its course. And by the end of 2003, About.com's Guide to Pediatrics couldn't even bring himself to name SARS the virus of the year.
Avian Flu - Avian Flu, an H5N1 virus, was a great concern for a time during the middle part of the decade. Avian flu is a bird influenza virus that, it was feared, might mutate into a virus that would infect humans, and worse, spread from person to person. It's mortality rate in humans was estimated to be above 50%.
And indeed, the virus did pass from birds to people in some cases, mainly in Asia, and the mortality rate was apparently quite high. Accordingly, for over a year the media reveled in the story. This, certainly, would become the 21st century's great pandemic.
But human to human transmission never materialized, and Avian flu fizzled. Finally, in early 2008, the director of the World Organization for Animal Health pronounced the problem over, saying, "The risk was overestimated."
H1N1 (Swine) Flu - The latest Pandemic of the Century is H1N1 (Swine) Flu, which appeared early in 2009 and rapidly spread around the world. Because of its rapid spread, its similarity to the deadly 1918 influenza, and the fact that most individuals under 60 years of age had never been exposed to a similar strain, this virus actually seemed a reasonable candidate for a very nasty pandemic.
So the media lost no time in explaining how we all might be doomed, and the government chipped in with its own helpful message to the effect that: a) it is absolutely imperative that everyone receive the H1N1 vaccine; but b) we can't figure out how to get it to you, so you can't have it. (Not exactly the best way to allay panic.)
Fortunately, the H1N1 virus, while widespread, so far appears even less lethal than the standard seasonal flu virus. And, by its spread, it is creating immunity in a large subset of our population.
It is still possible, of course, that the H1N1 virus will mutate into something far more lethal before it makes its next round - which is what the 1918 virus apparently did. In fact, the media is banking on it. But still, the odds seem higher that if this turns out to be the Pandemic of the Century, it will be a mild century indeed, pandemic-wise.
Here is some un-hyped information on the H1N1 flu by About.com's Guide to Patients.
In summary, so far none of the Pandemics of the Century have actually panned out. And hyping each novel virus that comes along as a potential plague of Biblical proportions is not cost-free. For, we in the public are likely to become desensitized to this message if it is repeated often enough. If we continue to be treated to a new "Pandemic of the Century" on an average of every 3.3 years, then when the real thing does come along (and it will), it may be difficult for the authorities to get our attention, much less get us to roll up our sleeves to receive the needle yet one more time.
